I used to work at The Chron

Liz McMillen is a nice person, and back when I used to work for The Chron that paper had some ballsy, smart journalists (other than her) calling the shots.

That pretty much came to an end when Scott Jaschik and Doug Lederman left to found insidehighered.com. Scott's a personal friend; I always thought Doug could be kind of a prick sometimes. But they both are tremendous reporters and editors who have earned a lot of my respect over the years. Between the two of them they are a wellspring of the kind of editorial courage that makes me proud to be in this business.

Now they're gone and we're left with this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304363104577391842133259230.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

It's not Liz' fault; she's just carrying the water for an editorial team and publisher who are a big bunch of whiny pussies. In hindsight I'm glad I didn't have to be there for the decline of this once-great media brand.

On the other hand, whining in print about getting "fired as a blogger" from The Chron is a little like writing a letter to the editor because the sky's the wrong shade of blue today.

As Zappa said, "Don't kid yourself."

http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=10150851560399027&set=a.325950199026.197696.112893474026&type=1&theater

You may thank me later...

...or not at all.

Once again, I present to you the Adjusted Scoring Margin figures for all 68 NCAA tournament teams. Look back to March 2005 or so for the explanation. It's how I'm going to pick my brackets. Sometimes it helps me do well. Other times it doesn't.

I've hardly watched any college basketball this season, so I really have no other recourse. I like what it's showing, even if I don't really believe in Ohio State. But, then again, I haven't seen enough of them to know, so who cares what I think.

A couple notes:

• If we get another mid-major rush into the Final Four, there's nothing that can help you. These numbers would be most effective if each round was a best of three or something. But one-and-done is a different beast. But you can throw your money after the VCUs of the world. I'll stick with this.
• I've noticed a definite uptick in the number of #1 and #2 seeds at the top of the ASM numbers in recent years. I think it's a sign that the NCAA has gotten better at seeding as they use more advanced metrics. It also means that not as many mild upsets get predicted (think Ok State as a 4 going to Final Four in 2004 or Louisville as a 4 going to Final Four in 2005). In some respects, good for the NCAA. In other respects, bad for interesting outcomes from the ASM.
• Nothing's perfect. Unless this helps you win your pool. Then it is.
  

East Region

Let's start with the East Region. Interesting result right off the bat with Ohio State having a stronger ASM profile than Syracuse (and Michigan State, for that matter, whom it lost to twice this year). That said, the numbers are what the numbers are.

Region	Seed	Team		ASM
East	2	Ohio State		19.3
East	1	Syracuse		17.2
East	4	Wisconsin		15.2
East	7	Gonzaga		12.9
East	5	Vanderbilt		11.9
East	3	Florida State		11.4
East	11	Texas		10.7
East	8	Kansas State		10.4
East	13	Montana		9.4
East	12	Harvard		9.2
East	6	Cincinnati		9.1
East	9	Southern Mississippi		9.1
East	10	West Virginia		8.4
East	16	UNC Asheville		7.1
East	14	St. Bonaventure		6.1
East	15	Loyola (MD)		2.7

Midwest Region

The Midwest Region. Not sure I trust Belmont or Cal to make it to the Sweet 16, but feel free to go for it. I'll go with UNC.

Region	Seed	Team		ASM
Midwest	1	North Carolina		18.5
Midwest	2	Kansas		16.9
Midwest	14	Belmont		13.0
Midwest	3	Georgetown		13.0
Midwest	7	Saint Mary's (CA)		12.5
Midwest	12	California		11.9
Midwest	8	Creighton		11.3
Midwest	9	Alabama		9.6
Midwest	6	San Diego State		9.5
Midwest	10	Purdue		9.3
Midwest	11	North Carolina State		9.2
Midwest	5	Temple		8.5
Midwest	4	Michigan		8.3
Midwest	13	Ohio		6.9
Midwest	16	Lamar		5.8
Midwest	16	Vermont		5.4
Midwest	12	South Florida		4.6
Midwest	15	Detroit		3.2

South Region

Here's the South Region. This is where the picking gets easy. Pick Kentucky. Repeat five more times. Have the tourney winner. (I'm not publishing the conference only efficiency margin, but I did run the numbers and Kentucky not only had the highest efficiency margin of any major conference team, I think they had the highest efficiency margin of any year I've tracked it. Huzzah to John Calipari's soon-to-be-vacated national championship!)

Region	Seed	Team		ASM
South	1	Kentucky		19.7
South	5	Wichita State		16.0
South	4	Indiana		15.4
South	3	Baylor		14.0
South	2	Duke		13.1
South	6	UNLV		13.1
South	13	New Mexico State		10.7
South	14	South Dakota State		9.9
South	8	Iowa State		9.7
South	9	UConn		9.5
South	15	Lehigh		8.5
South	7	Notre Dame		8.2
South	12	VCU		7.9
South	10	Xavier		6.5
South	11	Colorado		4.6
South	16	Western Kentucky		-1.4
South	16	Mississippi Valley State		-3.2

West Region ASM

Here's the West Region. Fact I always repeat, but almost never follow. The team with the fourth-best ASM of all the region leads has never made it to the Final Four (I believe) in all the years I've been doing this. So, I lean toward Missouri over Michigan State, despite the numbers. FWIW. Also, not crazy about Marquette.

Region	Seed	Team		ASM
West	1	Michigan State		17.8
West	2	Missouri		16.4
West	8	Memphis		15.4
West	5	New Mexico		15.2
West	7	Florida		12.9
West	3	Marquette		12.8
West	9	Saint Louis		12.7
West	14	BYU		12.0
West	6	Murray State		12.0
West	4	Louisville		11.9
West	12	Long Beach State		10.7
West	10	Virginia		10.5
West	14	Iona		10.1
West	13	Davidson		10.0
West	16	LIU Brooklyn		9.3
West	11	Colorado State		7.3
West	15	Norfolk State		1.3

Community

This much is sure: Community - NBC at 8ET/7CT on Thursdays, returning March 15 - at its best is by far the best show* on TV.

I can only hope it does not suffer the same fate as Arrested Development. So, start watching.

*If you don't believe me, watch:

• Season 1 - Modern Warfare (best episode of comedy TV just about ever)
• Season 1 - Physical Education (maybe the second best episode of comedy TV ever - seriously)
• Season 1 - Contemporary American Poultry - a classic
  
• Season 1 - Debate 109 - when the show hit its stride, but not their best episode ever
• Season 2 - Basic Rocket Science - a classic Community episode (you'll understand why when you see it)
• Season 2 - Conspiracy Theories and Interior Design - one of my favorites
• Season 2 - A Fistful of Paintballs - amazing
• Season 2 - For a Few Paintballs More - really good
• Season 3 - Remedial Chaos Theory - awesome

Watch, now!

Matt voting for Ron Paul

Saw Matt's Facebook post tonight about voting for Ron Paul. If you're not interviewed on TV about your cynical vote, it loses power.

Just go with the flow: Mitt '12 - I'm just about good enough!

Bruce Weber as Illinois basketball coach - RIP

I'm actually a big Bruce Weber fan. I thought he was the right coach for the Illini team he took to the NCAA finals in 2005. I did not think Bill Self would have done as well. Weber knew how to take fairly well-talented individuals and raise their game. People forget this, but only Dee Weber was a highly touted recruit. Deron Williams, the best player on that team, was not. But Weber's system played to their strengths - and got Williams and Luther Head drafted in the first round of the NBA draft and a number of other players jobs overseas.

But it's become clear that Bill Self was the best long term solution for the program. He would have gotten the recruits that would have sustained the excellence. Instead, Weber could never land the Derrick Rose, the Sherron Collins, the Julian Wright or any number of truly outstanding players that would have made a difference. Yes, he got screwed by that cheater Kelvin Sampson when he stole Eric Gordon, but that was as close as he ever got to the game changing recruit.

That's why when I read this story today, I had to laugh. If Bruce Weber had Jabari Parker signed, firing him would not necessarily be the right move. But he doesn't have him signed. His dad thinks "Illinois is definitely in the mix." Not good enough - and that's been the problem since 2005.

Sorry, Bruce. It's time to go.

I gots lots to say tonight, people

So, prepare for a number of posts to follow.

NBC News: Don't believe us!

I'm amused by Tom Brokaw complaining about Mitt Romney's ad that features some footage from an NBC News broadcast about Gingrich's ethics censure (or whatever) from the House back in the 90s.

Politicians quote TV and newspapers all the time in their ads, and I've never heard a complaint, except on the occasional super out of context quote. But it's hard to see how 30 seconds or so could be that out of context.

You hear a lot of criticism of attack ads. This class of ad is probably the worst offender of out of context quotes. But this ad is pretty much just a rebroadcast of the nightly news. Conservatives have said for years that the mainstream media are biased against conservatives. So maybe this is just NBC copping to that bias.

But I suspect that's not what's happening, and that they just don't want to be associated with a political campaign. I could certainly understand why a journalist wouldn't want to sit down and shoot a campaign ad, but that's obviously not the case here.

Whatever their motivation, the message that they're putting out is that we shouldn't rely on NBC to provide us information for making decisions about voting. I'm just not sure how well this plan was thought through.

New Jersey

This story reminded me of the joke when we were there.

Q. Where are the top three places where AU students come from?

A. New York, New Jersey and anywhere else outside the United States.

Weighing on my mind...

In November, Cherie and I attended a Foo Fighters concert at Verizon Center here in DC. It was, hands-down, one of the top two shows I've ever attended -- and I've seen Pearl Jam 3 times, Nirvana, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, Jane's Addiction (with Dave Navarro), Live, the HFStival when it was in its heyday, Better then Ezra -- ok, that was a joke -- I really did see them -- at Bender Arena -- but it was not an inspiring show.

Dave Grohl and his fellow Foos, in a homecoming concert (Dave grew up in Springfield, not far from me, and attended the high school I would have attended had my family not moved to Japan halfway through 7th grade), rocked the house for 3 hours. The show was the Foo Fighters' first-ever sellout in the DC area. The crowd was full of energy. And, there was a special intensity to the band's playing -- you could just tell Dave was trying harder than normal throughout the show, whether it was sprinting from one end of the arena to the other, playing on a riser to the crowd in the back of the arena that rose about 30 feet above the ground, talking with the crowd about life growing up in northern Virginia, or playing with the crowd during the intermission between the main set and the encore -- it was just an awesome night.

But it got me thinking about that other show on my "top two" list, coincidentally also at the Verizon Center. On May 30, 2006, Pearl Jam played a show at the Phone Booth, backing its brand-new, self-titled album, also known as the "Avocado", after the picture of said fruit on the album's cover. It was the only indoor Pearl Jam concert I'd ever attended, and it was truly awesome. As I learned that night, the acoustics of an indoor arena are crucial for a band like Pearl Jam that relies so heavily on its interaction with the crowd. Being indoors allows the band and the crowd to hear each other's full-throated devotion, instead of having some of the volume, whether it's the crowd cheering or singing, or the guitar riff being ripped off by Mike McCready, drift away into the night air. The atmosphere that night was truly electric, with the band tearing through almost the whole new album, as well as classics I hadn't heard in forever (including their cover of the Dead Boys' "Sonic Reducer", one of my favorite "PJ songs" of all time, and a song they'd played regularly early in their career but sparingly in recent years), jumping around the stage, playing their hearts out, and the crowd routinely and lustily cheering and serenading the band.

It was also the only concert I've ever attended completely alone...and that made it even better. For the first time ever, I felt completely free to get there early, leave late, buy a t-shirt, sing at the top of my lungs, high-five my fellow concertgoers, rock out to the songs being sung, and generally immerse myself in the energy of the concert and the night. I drank in every moment, and I loved it. I left the show completely exhausted, and in a state of near-total bliss.

That spring, Cherie, pregnant with Audrey (5 months along, as Audrey was born almost 4 months to the day later) was already up in Connecticut, having had her job transferred from Tysons Corner to White Plains. I was still trying to get transferred to my employer's New York City office (which didn't happen until September of that year, days before Audrey's birth!), and working for Federal clients here in the DC area, then taking the Acela or my VW up to Connecticut every Friday night to spend the weekend with Cherie -- or working remotely from our house in Connecticut for extended periods if I could get away with it.

The concert was on a Tuesday night. I had bought tickets months before. Once she knew she was pregnant, Cherie was (understandably) wanting me to "work remotely" as often as I could so I could be with her in Connecticut. So, she was not really keen on the idea of me staying in DC for a concert, and had suggested at some point that I sell the tickets. I think part of her was also a bit jealous that I would be attending a PJ concert without her -- she loved them, too, and thought if she couldn't go, I shouldn't either. And, being pregnant, her hormones and emotions were jumping all over the place.

As it turned out, I was stuck in DC that week for client meetings I had to take in person -- so there was no chance for me to get up to Connecticut until the end of the week. And I had been so busy I'd forgotten about selling the tickets. And, to be fair, I'd never wanted to sell them in the first place, so perhaps my subconscious was acting up ....

In any case, finding them still in my possession that Tuesday night, I went. I told Cherie I had a dinner for work, so she wouldn't call me during the concert, or if she did, she would understand why I wouldn't pick up. And then I went and had (what was to date) the best concertgoing experience of my life.

In the years since, I've kept that experience a secret. I don't talk about it, for fear of slipping up in conversation with Cherie and referring to it. Several times, I've found it weighing on my mind. Cherie and I have a great relationship, but there are (as I think all men believe) certain things you just don't talk about with your spouse for fear of inciting an argument or hurt feelings, or both. This was one of those things (at the time) that I knew could not be discussed rationally without hurting Cherie's feelings, and making her angry at me, or both. And, I believe even today that if I revealed to her that I went to that concert, she would be angry with me. So, I didn't tell her about it then, and I don't talk about it now.

Except here on this blog where she will never read it (Amanda, don't you dare direct her here!).

I don't regret going -- it was a wonderful experience -- but what say you, fellow blog readers? Did I do the right thing in going? Did I do the understandable thing in not telling her? Should I just keep my mouth shut, or tell her now?