Thursday, March 30, 2006
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
March Madness
I am currently second in our pool. Second place is still a money winner. The only way I can get knocked out is if LSU beats UCLA, as the one schmuck who graduated from LSU picked them to go all the way.
Which brings me to the point of this: LSU??! *grumble* Maybe I was hasty picking Duke, but honestly, LSU?? *sigh*
Which brings me to the point of this: LSU??! *grumble* Maybe I was hasty picking Duke, but honestly, LSU?? *sigh*
For Those of You With Nostalgia for Dangerous Firetraps
The founder of Mr. Henry's has died.
I will drink a sloe gin and sprite in his honor. Well, probably not.
I will drink a sloe gin and sprite in his honor. Well, probably not.
Welcome, Urban Love Commando
I definitely dropped a few f-bombs in amazement when I saw that one Paul Williams, aka Fred Johnson, aka The Urban Love Commando, showed up on the blog. Good to hear from you, Paul! When you start working for Roger Staubach, work on getting me some NASCAR tickets. I'll even pretend to root for Hall of Fame Racing.
Anyway, with all the T-Northers coming out of the woodwork, I thought I'd take the opportunity to create another blog, creatively titled, T-North: The Blog. If you think you qualify to post on there, click the link and follow my directions.
Why another blog? I'm all about creating online communities - without the creepiness (reg. req) of myspace.com or xanga.com.
Anyway, with all the T-Northers coming out of the woodwork, I thought I'd take the opportunity to create another blog, creatively titled, T-North: The Blog. If you think you qualify to post on there, click the link and follow my directions.
Why another blog? I'm all about creating online communities - without the creepiness (reg. req) of myspace.com or xanga.com.
Monday, March 27, 2006
Guapo's, Nanny's, and the damn NCAA tourney...
Matt, et al:
I am very interested in going out Thursday night and seeing you guys. I've been so damn wrapped up in the developments of my own personal life that I welcome a diversion.
Guapo's followed by Nanny's would be fine by me.
In other developments, I entered the weekend with my brackets containing 6 of the Elite 8. I was in first place, and I felt very good about my chances of winning my pool.
Then everything went to shite. Villanova, Texas, and UCONN all lost. Now I have only 1 of the Final 4 remaining in my bracket (UCLA). UCONN in particular screwed me (with their unfocused, lazy, un-inspired basketball), because I had UCONN winning the whole thing. On the flip side, it was nice to see a team like GMU win, because they played with a sustained intensity that betrayed just how badly they wanted to win. I think that based on their relative levels of intensity and excellent play, LSU and GMU have to be even money to win the whole shebang.
The good news is that this week's and this weekend's results were so unexpected that they hosed everybody in my pool. Thanks to the ASM, I won a ton of games in the earlier rounds, and I am still in a very strong position. I'm still in first place. Thanks to the Scenario Generator (what a great addition to the Yahoo tourney game, by the way), I have determined that as long as UCLA loses in the national semi-finals, I'll win my pool. If UCLA wins in the national semis, I fall to a homer in my pool who picked UCLA to go all the way just for grins.
Love that ASM...it has proven its mettle in yet another year.
I am very interested in going out Thursday night and seeing you guys. I've been so damn wrapped up in the developments of my own personal life that I welcome a diversion.
Guapo's followed by Nanny's would be fine by me.
In other developments, I entered the weekend with my brackets containing 6 of the Elite 8. I was in first place, and I felt very good about my chances of winning my pool.
Then everything went to shite. Villanova, Texas, and UCONN all lost. Now I have only 1 of the Final 4 remaining in my bracket (UCLA). UCONN in particular screwed me (with their unfocused, lazy, un-inspired basketball), because I had UCONN winning the whole thing. On the flip side, it was nice to see a team like GMU win, because they played with a sustained intensity that betrayed just how badly they wanted to win. I think that based on their relative levels of intensity and excellent play, LSU and GMU have to be even money to win the whole shebang.
The good news is that this week's and this weekend's results were so unexpected that they hosed everybody in my pool. Thanks to the ASM, I won a ton of games in the earlier rounds, and I am still in a very strong position. I'm still in first place. Thanks to the Scenario Generator (what a great addition to the Yahoo tourney game, by the way), I have determined that as long as UCLA loses in the national semi-finals, I'll win my pool. If UCLA wins in the national semis, I fall to a homer in my pool who picked UCLA to go all the way just for grins.
Love that ASM...it has proven its mettle in yet another year.
This thursday
Is there any interest in a Thursday-night dinner at Guapo's and post-dinner drinky-poo?
Recognizing that people have to work Fri., I don't propose tearing it up too bad...
But since The Malt Shop is not really any good any more, I would like to satisfy my curiosity about what the inside of Nanny's looks like these days. I bet it would be the first time anyone here has seen it in a while...
Just a thought...
--Matt
Recognizing that people have to work Fri., I don't propose tearing it up too bad...
But since The Malt Shop is not really any good any more, I would like to satisfy my curiosity about what the inside of Nanny's looks like these days. I bet it would be the first time anyone here has seen it in a while...
Just a thought...
--Matt
Friday, March 24, 2006
ASM still going strong...
My ASM-based picks now have me in first place by 3 points in my Yahoo! Fantasy Sports-based office pool. Thanks, Close!
Sunday, March 19, 2006
ASM proving its mettle in the early going...
Throught Saturday night's results, my ASM-based picks have me in 2nd place out of 20 entrants in my office NCAA pool, only 2 points out of 1st.
Saturday, March 18, 2006
A Landmark Will Leave Us
And only the Dancing Crab speaks against it!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/17/AR2006031701908.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/17/AR2006031701908.html
Friday, March 17, 2006
Thinking is Bad
Damn me for out-thinking my own stupid system. Why did I not just follow the numbers?
F you, Kansas Jayhawks.
F you, Bill Self. Glad you're not at Illinois.
F you, Kansas Jayhawks.
F you, Bill Self. Glad you're not at Illinois.
Thursday, March 16, 2006
To quote Men at Work: “He was provokin’ me.”
Sorry to revisit the whole “AU to the Patriot League move was a bad one” argument, but I just happened across Robert Spuhler’s post on the subject titled "Once and Eagle..." from last Wednesday, and this is a subject that still causes me to argue. Let’s look at his key points:
Robert: “The reason given for the move by then-president Ben Ladner was that the school wished to associate itself with schools that were on our academic level – a laughable assertion at the time and today.”
Me: My memory on this may be a bit fuzzy, but I also seem to remember that another reason for the move was so that AU would compete against schools that devoted a similar level of resources to their athletic programs. In the CAA, AU competed against mostly state schools that were able to put more money into their programs. In the Patriot League, it is (except for the service academies) small private schools like AU. Again, I could be wrong, but the resource question was the best rationale to me.
Robert: “The unspoken reason was pure greed…there is no quicker way for a school to gain a national profile – something that American has always lacked – than to play in a high-level sports event[the NCAA tournament]. The problem? AU was not in any position to qualify for the tournament in the Colonial.”
Me: Agreed – making the NCAA tournament was an unstated reason – but not the reason – for the move.
Robert: “So, AU took a dive. And make no mistake – while Bucknell is currently the mid-major darling, the Patriot League is certainly a step down from the Colonial.”
Me: I have always had a problem with this argument. Let’s put it this way: Tuesday at 8, I could have watched either According to Jim or TV’s Most Outrageous Moments. One might be a better show than the other, but they still both suck, and I watched something else. That’s what I think about Colonial and Patriot League basketball. The Colonial has a better RPI than the Patriot, but we’re not talking about going from the Big Ten to the Patriot League. We’re talking about going from a one-bid league to another one-bid league.
Robert: “How has that move worked out? Well, the obvious answer is that AU has still not qualified for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. This year, AU could not even make it to the league championship game, falling to the aforementioned Bison.”
Me: You know, no one said it would be easy. However, I would point this out: # of nationally televised games featuring AU while they were in the CAA: 1 (and I’m counting the game ESPN televised when Bender opened); # of nationally televised games featuring AU while they have been in the Patriot League: 3.
Robert: “But more importantly, AU has seen its stronger teams such as men’s soccer suffer.”
Me: Really? The men’s soccer team has gone to the NCAAs 3 times in the last 5 years. They went twice in 16 years in the CAA (1985 and 1997). And in between those visits they weren’t exactly tearing it up, as far as I remember.
AU’s time in the Patriot League has also seen other sports improve and go to the NCAA’s. Lesser competition in the Patriot League? Maybe. Or maybe the chance to reasonably compete for NCAA bids attracts better athletes to AU than before. Who knows.
Anyway, I don’t think that the move to the Patriot League was boneheaded at all. It may not have worked out exactly as envisioned, insofar as an NCAA tournament berth in basketball, but it made and makes sense.
Now, where’s Paul Williams so I can argue about this some more?
Robert: “The reason given for the move by then-president Ben Ladner was that the school wished to associate itself with schools that were on our academic level – a laughable assertion at the time and today.”
Me: My memory on this may be a bit fuzzy, but I also seem to remember that another reason for the move was so that AU would compete against schools that devoted a similar level of resources to their athletic programs. In the CAA, AU competed against mostly state schools that were able to put more money into their programs. In the Patriot League, it is (except for the service academies) small private schools like AU. Again, I could be wrong, but the resource question was the best rationale to me.
Robert: “The unspoken reason was pure greed…there is no quicker way for a school to gain a national profile – something that American has always lacked – than to play in a high-level sports event[the NCAA tournament]. The problem? AU was not in any position to qualify for the tournament in the Colonial.”
Me: Agreed – making the NCAA tournament was an unstated reason – but not the reason – for the move.
Robert: “So, AU took a dive. And make no mistake – while Bucknell is currently the mid-major darling, the Patriot League is certainly a step down from the Colonial.”
Me: I have always had a problem with this argument. Let’s put it this way: Tuesday at 8, I could have watched either According to Jim or TV’s Most Outrageous Moments. One might be a better show than the other, but they still both suck, and I watched something else. That’s what I think about Colonial and Patriot League basketball. The Colonial has a better RPI than the Patriot, but we’re not talking about going from the Big Ten to the Patriot League. We’re talking about going from a one-bid league to another one-bid league.
Robert: “How has that move worked out? Well, the obvious answer is that AU has still not qualified for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. This year, AU could not even make it to the league championship game, falling to the aforementioned Bison.”
Me: You know, no one said it would be easy. However, I would point this out: # of nationally televised games featuring AU while they were in the CAA: 1 (and I’m counting the game ESPN televised when Bender opened); # of nationally televised games featuring AU while they have been in the Patriot League: 3.
Robert: “But more importantly, AU has seen its stronger teams such as men’s soccer suffer.”
Me: Really? The men’s soccer team has gone to the NCAAs 3 times in the last 5 years. They went twice in 16 years in the CAA (1985 and 1997). And in between those visits they weren’t exactly tearing it up, as far as I remember.
AU’s time in the Patriot League has also seen other sports improve and go to the NCAA’s. Lesser competition in the Patriot League? Maybe. Or maybe the chance to reasonably compete for NCAA bids attracts better athletes to AU than before. Who knows.
Anyway, I don’t think that the move to the Patriot League was boneheaded at all. It may not have worked out exactly as envisioned, insofar as an NCAA tournament berth in basketball, but it made and makes sense.
Now, where’s Paul Williams so I can argue about this some more?
Monday, March 13, 2006
The Return of the (not quite) Almighty ASM
Just in time to fill out your brackets, I have posted my official 2006 Adjusted Scoring Margin tables below (Official 2006 ASM Motto: “I don’t trust these numbers!”). I’ve also posted some comments about the numbers at the end of each region.
But first, what is ASM? Read this post from last year and follow the link to the article by Joe Lunardi.
Why should you care? Because these numbers seem to mean something. Check out the results in Lunardi’s article, and then see my own results from the last two years:
2004 Top ASM by Region and Final Result:
Atlanta – Duke (Final Four)
East Rutherford – Oklahoma State (Final Four)
Phoenix – UConn (Final Four)
St. Louis – Gonzaga* (Second Round)
2005 Top ASM by Region and Final Result:
Albuquerque – Louisville (Final Four)
Austin – Duke** (Sweet Sixteen)
Chicago – Illinois (Final Four)
Syracuse – North Carolina (Final Four)
*The second-highest ASM in the St. Louis bracket was Georgia Tech, which went to the Final Four. Thus was created The Gonzaga Corollary: Thou shalt not select a team from a non-major conference to make the Final Four. Uh oh, Memphis.
**Michigan State had the third-highest ASM in the bracket, a very respectable 15.7. Thus was created The Rule of About 15: The most likely Final Four teams will have an ASM about 15 or higher.
So, six Final Four teams out of eight possible – not too shabby. Will the numbers lead us to NCAA pool victory this year? I don’t know (and like I said, I don’t really trust these numbers), but if it keeps you from picking Gonzaga to go to the Final Four, another angel gets its wings in Heaven.
Enjoy!
But first, what is ASM? Read this post from last year and follow the link to the article by Joe Lunardi.
Why should you care? Because these numbers seem to mean something. Check out the results in Lunardi’s article, and then see my own results from the last two years:
2004 Top ASM by Region and Final Result:
Atlanta – Duke (Final Four)
East Rutherford – Oklahoma State (Final Four)
Phoenix – UConn (Final Four)
St. Louis – Gonzaga* (Second Round)
2005 Top ASM by Region and Final Result:
Albuquerque – Louisville (Final Four)
Austin – Duke** (Sweet Sixteen)
Chicago – Illinois (Final Four)
Syracuse – North Carolina (Final Four)
*The second-highest ASM in the St. Louis bracket was Georgia Tech, which went to the Final Four. Thus was created The Gonzaga Corollary: Thou shalt not select a team from a non-major conference to make the Final Four. Uh oh, Memphis.
**Michigan State had the third-highest ASM in the bracket, a very respectable 15.7. Thus was created The Rule of About 15: The most likely Final Four teams will have an ASM about 15 or higher.
So, six Final Four teams out of eight possible – not too shabby. Will the numbers lead us to NCAA pool victory this year? I don’t know (and like I said, I don’t really trust these numbers), but if it keeps you from picking Gonzaga to go to the Final Four, another angel gets its wings in Heaven.
Enjoy!
Atlanta Region
Atlanta Region
Texas – 19.9
Duke – 18.8
LSU – 13.5
West Virginia – 11.1
Iowa – 11.0
Texas A&M – 10.9
NC State – 10.7
George Washington – 10.6
UNC-Wilmington – 9.9
Penn – 8.8
Syracuse – 8.7
California – 8.2
Iona – 7.8
Southern Illinois – 7.3
Northwestern State – 6.9
Notes: Thanks, NCAA Selection Committee, for putting the top two ASM teams in the same bracket. I trust Texas not at all, but, then again, Duke is not exactly a juggernaut. Texas also has the highest efficiency margin of any major conference team this year, for what it’s worth (in 2005, the top four teams in efficiency margin were Illinois, UNC, Louisville, and Michigan State – did they do well in the tourney?). Nevertheless, if you can do two pools, I suggest doing one with Texas and one with Duke.
Texas – 19.9
Duke – 18.8
LSU – 13.5
West Virginia – 11.1
Iowa – 11.0
Texas A&M – 10.9
NC State – 10.7
George Washington – 10.6
UNC-Wilmington – 9.9
Penn – 8.8
Syracuse – 8.7
California – 8.2
Iona – 7.8
Southern Illinois – 7.3
Northwestern State – 6.9
Notes: Thanks, NCAA Selection Committee, for putting the top two ASM teams in the same bracket. I trust Texas not at all, but, then again, Duke is not exactly a juggernaut. Texas also has the highest efficiency margin of any major conference team this year, for what it’s worth (in 2005, the top four teams in efficiency margin were Illinois, UNC, Louisville, and Michigan State – did they do well in the tourney?). Nevertheless, if you can do two pools, I suggest doing one with Texas and one with Duke.
DC Region
DC Region
Connecticut – 18.1
UNC – 15.3
Illinois – 13.9
Washington – 13.2
Tennessee – 12.5
Winthrop – 11.8
George Mason – 11.5
Air Force – 11.3
UAB – 9.8
Utah State – 9.4
Wichita State – 9.4
Michigan State – 9.2
Kentucky – 8.8
Murray State – 8.8
Seton Hall – 4.1
Notes: Pick Connecticut. Also, why is everyone still on Michigan State’s bandwagon? Their ASM and efficiency margin profile looks nothing like last year. Do not be fooled – MSU has not been great during the season, and they won’t be great now either.
Connecticut – 18.1
UNC – 15.3
Illinois – 13.9
Washington – 13.2
Tennessee – 12.5
Winthrop – 11.8
George Mason – 11.5
Air Force – 11.3
UAB – 9.8
Utah State – 9.4
Wichita State – 9.4
Michigan State – 9.2
Kentucky – 8.8
Murray State – 8.8
Seton Hall – 4.1
Notes: Pick Connecticut. Also, why is everyone still on Michigan State’s bandwagon? Their ASM and efficiency margin profile looks nothing like last year. Do not be fooled – MSU has not been great during the season, and they won’t be great now either.
Minneapolis Region
Minneapolis Region
Villanova – 16.0
Florida – 15.4
Ohio State – 13.7
Nevada – 10.8
Northern Iowa – 10.8
Boston College – 10.7
Wisconsin – 10.0
Arizona – 9.5
Georgetown – 9.4
Oklahoma – 9.3
Pacific – 9.1
UW-Milwaukee – 8.7
S. Alabama – 7.8
Montana – 7.6
Davidson – 7.2
Notes: I would have liked Villanova to have a higher ASM, but what can you do? Do you trust Florida or Ohio State more than Villanova? I didn’t think so.
Villanova – 16.0
Florida – 15.4
Ohio State – 13.7
Nevada – 10.8
Northern Iowa – 10.8
Boston College – 10.7
Wisconsin – 10.0
Arizona – 9.5
Georgetown – 9.4
Oklahoma – 9.3
Pacific – 9.1
UW-Milwaukee – 8.7
S. Alabama – 7.8
Montana – 7.6
Davidson – 7.2
Notes: I would have liked Villanova to have a higher ASM, but what can you do? Do you trust Florida or Ohio State more than Villanova? I didn’t think so.
Oakland Region
Oakland Region
Memphis – 17.8
Kansas – 17.2
UCLA – 12.4
Pittsburgh - 12.4
Arkansas – 11.4
Bucknell - 10.6
Marquette – 9.8
Xavier – 9.4
Bradley – 9.3
Indiana – 8.9
Gonzaga – 8.8
San Diego State – 8.4
Kent State – 8.0
Alabama – 6.9
Belmont – 4.7
Notes: I am invoking The Gonzaga Corollary here (ironically, in Gonzaga’s bracket). Conference USA is not a major conference anymore. I can’t believe in Memphis. Of course, Kansas is just as young a team as Memphis is, so why should you pick them? I first ran these numbers two weeks ago – Kansas is the only major conference team whose ASM has improved.
Memphis – 17.8
Kansas – 17.2
UCLA – 12.4
Pittsburgh - 12.4
Arkansas – 11.4
Bucknell - 10.6
Marquette – 9.8
Xavier – 9.4
Bradley – 9.3
Indiana – 8.9
Gonzaga – 8.8
San Diego State – 8.4
Kent State – 8.0
Alabama – 6.9
Belmont – 4.7
Notes: I am invoking The Gonzaga Corollary here (ironically, in Gonzaga’s bracket). Conference USA is not a major conference anymore. I can’t believe in Memphis. Of course, Kansas is just as young a team as Memphis is, so why should you pick them? I first ran these numbers two weeks ago – Kansas is the only major conference team whose ASM has improved.
Friday, March 10, 2006
Good news for DC area beer
Another one doesn't bite the dust... See this entry (http://www.lewbryson.com/news.htm) on the sale of Old Dominion Brewing to the people who've been involved with Clyde's and Cap Grill.
Thursday, March 09, 2006
It's the most wonderful time of the year
No more regular season, conference tournaments are in full swing, and we're only days away from Selection Sunday. We're also only days away from a regular dose of Billy Packer. But despite that, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year.
It's also time for NCAA pools.
Coming Monday(-ish):
It's also time for NCAA pools.
Coming Monday(-ish):
- The return of the ASM (official motto: helping Chris do well in NCAA pools since 2004) - this year's edition is likely to be subtitled (based on preliminary numbers): "Do I really trust Texas this much?"
- An introduction to the world of tempo-free stats, specifically something called "efficiency margin."
Ah, the anticipation.
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
Mmmm, 184 Proof
Uh, this stuff is going to give Knob Creek a run for its money - or at least Josh's money.
Sad
It's a wonder that kids these days will know how to do anything once they get into the workforce - they don't have to learn math, just how to do it on their calculator; they don't have to know how to write (based on what I've seen); and now, they aren't even doing their own college applications. Parents are hiring consultants to help their kids go through the college application process.
Diagnosis: pathetic.
Diagnosis: pathetic.
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