Just in time to fill out your brackets, I have posted my official 2006 Adjusted Scoring Margin tables below (Official 2006 ASM Motto: “I don’t trust these numbers!”). I’ve also posted some comments about the numbers at the end of each region.
But first, what is ASM? Read this post from last year and follow the link to the article by Joe Lunardi.
Why should you care? Because these numbers seem to mean something. Check out the results in Lunardi’s article, and then see my own results from the last two years:
2004 Top ASM by Region and Final Result:
Atlanta – Duke (Final Four)
East Rutherford – Oklahoma State (Final Four)
Phoenix – UConn (Final Four)
St. Louis – Gonzaga* (Second Round)
2005 Top ASM by Region and Final Result:
Albuquerque – Louisville (Final Four)
Austin – Duke** (Sweet Sixteen)
Chicago – Illinois (Final Four)
Syracuse – North Carolina (Final Four)
*The second-highest ASM in the St. Louis bracket was Georgia Tech, which went to the Final Four. Thus was created The Gonzaga Corollary: Thou shalt not select a team from a non-major conference to make the Final Four. Uh oh, Memphis.
**Michigan State had the third-highest ASM in the bracket, a very respectable 15.7. Thus was created The Rule of About 15: The most likely Final Four teams will have an ASM about 15 or higher.
So, six Final Four teams out of eight possible – not too shabby. Will the numbers lead us to NCAA pool victory this year? I don’t know (and like I said, I don’t really trust these numbers), but if it keeps you from picking Gonzaga to go to the Final Four, another angel gets its wings in Heaven.
Enjoy!
No comments:
Post a Comment