Below I present you with my annual contribution to your ability to be competitive in your NCAA pools. This year, I have three metrics for you to evaluate the field and make your decisions.
A couple reminders. I’m not saying any of these metrics are perfect. Far from it. But they take the emotion out of picking winners (i.e., I won’t pick Illinois to do anything this year – not that I would. I’m sick of that team) so that you have the best chance of staying alive to win the pool. How will you win the pool? By picking the winner. That’s the only way. And overall the three metrics should paint a pretty clear picture of who the best teams are. Last year, Duke was at the top of all three of my metrics. That worked out pretty well.
Overview of the Metrics
Adjusted Scoring Margin (ASM) – Ah, the granddaddy of them all. I’ve been using this 2004 to help me in NCAA pools. It’s a tool that helps you evaluate who has played the best all year taking into account the level of competition.
Efficiency Margin-Conference Only (Major Conferences Only – ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC) – I first came across this after the 2005 Tournament when the top four teams in this metric all made the Final Four. It hasn’t worked out that way since, but it’s been fairly predictive of at least the Elite Eight. Basically it measures the difference between how efficient you are on offense (points/possessions) and on defense (points against/possessions) just within your conference regular-season games. The higher the better. Why just major conferences? Because there are too many horrendous teams in non-major conferences that completely inflate the Efficiency Margin for the best teams in those lower conferences.
Efficiency Margin vs. Top 100 RPI – This is my own metric. So, it’s probably only so valid. But here’s my rationale. The teams you play in the tournament are almost definitely in the Top 100 RPI. So, why not find out how well the teams in the tournament do against that level of competition. I’m also able to include the best teams from the non-power conferences and level out the comparison by dropping their worst opponents. When I fooled around with this last year, the top two teams were Duke and Butler. Yeah, I know. I thought it was crap. I was wrong. But it’s worth a look anyway. It will probably never work out that way again.
Good luck.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Efficiency Margin vs. Top 100 RPI
I didn’t do this for the whole field, but I feel fairly confident that the winner of the tournament will come from this group.
The top teams listed will be a recurring theme in all the metrics, but let me point a couple things out:
· Ohio State and Kansas have been good against top teams all year. Really good.
· This won’t be the last time I say this: Washington, despite all it’s ups and downs this year, is not an unreasonable pick to beat North Carolina.
· The BYU figure can’t account for the loss of its top rebounder. So, I probably won’t be picking them to go to the Final Four based on this metric. They will probably win the whole thing now.
· Check out Notre Dame. When they looked like they were heading for a #1 seed, I was ecstatic. I was going to pick against them as much as I could. I believe they are a fraud. This does not dissuade me.
Region
Seed
Team
Top100 RPI EM
East 1 Ohio State 17.32
East 8 George Mason 12.07
East 7 Washington 7.30
East 6 Xavier 5.87
East 2 North Carolina 5.86
East 3 Syracuse 5.84
East 4 Kentucky 5.20
East 9 Villanova 2.73
East 5 West Virginia 2.00
East 11 Marquette 0.08
East 10 Georgia -2.70
Southeast 3 BYU 10.94
Southeast 1 Pittsburgh 10.72
Southeast 2 Florida 9.55
Southeast 4 Wisconsin 8.24
Southeast 9 Old Dominion 2.27
Southeast 6 St. John's 0.96
Southeast 8 Butler 0.78
Southeast 11 Gonzaga 0.62
Southeast 5 Kansas State 0.60
Southeast 7 UCLA 0.38
Southeast 10 Michigan State -5.92
Southeast 12 Utah State -6.52
Southwest 1 Kansas 15.71
Southwest 3 Purdue 10.58
Southwest 5 Vanderbilt 3.79
Southwest 2 Notre Dame 3.68
Southwest 4 Louisville 3.59
Southwest 9 Illinois 2.36
Southwest 6 Georgetown 0.72
Southwest 12 Richmond 0.41
Southwest 8 UNLV -2.50
Southwest 10 Florida State -6.06
West 1 Duke 10.72
West 2 San Diego State 9.28
West 4 Texas 8.75
West 6 Cincinatti 6.07
West 9 Tennessee 2.30
West 3 Connecticut 2.21
West 7 Temple 1.20
West 11 Missouri 0.84
West 8 Michigan -3.30
West 5 Arizona -4.68
The top teams listed will be a recurring theme in all the metrics, but let me point a couple things out:
· Ohio State and Kansas have been good against top teams all year. Really good.
· This won’t be the last time I say this: Washington, despite all it’s ups and downs this year, is not an unreasonable pick to beat North Carolina.
· The BYU figure can’t account for the loss of its top rebounder. So, I probably won’t be picking them to go to the Final Four based on this metric. They will probably win the whole thing now.
· Check out Notre Dame. When they looked like they were heading for a #1 seed, I was ecstatic. I was going to pick against them as much as I could. I believe they are a fraud. This does not dissuade me.
Region
Seed
Team
Top100 RPI EM
East 1 Ohio State 17.32
East 8 George Mason 12.07
East 7 Washington 7.30
East 6 Xavier 5.87
East 2 North Carolina 5.86
East 3 Syracuse 5.84
East 4 Kentucky 5.20
East 9 Villanova 2.73
East 5 West Virginia 2.00
East 11 Marquette 0.08
East 10 Georgia -2.70
Southeast 3 BYU 10.94
Southeast 1 Pittsburgh 10.72
Southeast 2 Florida 9.55
Southeast 4 Wisconsin 8.24
Southeast 9 Old Dominion 2.27
Southeast 6 St. John's 0.96
Southeast 8 Butler 0.78
Southeast 11 Gonzaga 0.62
Southeast 5 Kansas State 0.60
Southeast 7 UCLA 0.38
Southeast 10 Michigan State -5.92
Southeast 12 Utah State -6.52
Southwest 1 Kansas 15.71
Southwest 3 Purdue 10.58
Southwest 5 Vanderbilt 3.79
Southwest 2 Notre Dame 3.68
Southwest 4 Louisville 3.59
Southwest 9 Illinois 2.36
Southwest 6 Georgetown 0.72
Southwest 12 Richmond 0.41
Southwest 8 UNLV -2.50
Southwest 10 Florida State -6.06
West 1 Duke 10.72
West 2 San Diego State 9.28
West 4 Texas 8.75
West 6 Cincinatti 6.07
West 9 Tennessee 2.30
West 3 Connecticut 2.21
West 7 Temple 1.20
West 11 Missouri 0.84
West 8 Michigan -3.30
West 5 Arizona -4.68
Efficiency Margin - Conference Only (Major Conference Only)
As explained earlier, here’s the efficiency margin for major conference teams, conference games only. Hey, look who has the best efficiency margin!
· Again, Washington over North Carolina is not far-fetched.
· Notre Dame does not stack up against Purdue – again.
· If you want to take a flyer on something, try Texas over Duke. One, Texas hit a lull but they were being talked about as a #1 seed not that long ago so they’re not 4-seed quality. Two, from what I’ve seen, they’re exactly the kind of team that gives Duke trouble – good defensive team, tall, athletic (think Florida State).
Region Seed Team EM
East 1 Ohio State 16.66
East 4 Kentucky 11.68
East 7 Washington 11.12
East 2 North Carolina 11.03
East 3 Syracuse 8.76
East 12 Clemson 6.06
East 5 West Virginia 5.11
East 10 Georgia 5.07
East 11 Marquette 3.68
East 9 Villanova 1.46
Southeast 1 Pittsburgh 14.79
Southeast 2 Florida 11.85
Southeast 4 Wisconsin 9.72
Southeast 7 UCLA 6.01
Southeast 5 Kansas State 4.58
Southeast 6 St. John's 1.94
Southeast 10 Michigan State -3.85
Southwest 1 Kansas 17.26
Southwest 3 Purdue 12.60
Southwest 2 Notre Dame 7.58
Southwest 4 Louisville 6.77
Southwest 9 Illinois 4.67
Southwest 5 Vanderbilt 4.57
Southwest 10 Florida State 4.35
Southwest 11 USC 3.24
Southwest 6 Georgetown -0.53
West 4 Texas 19.79
West 1 Duke 15.72
West 5 Arizona 5.73
West 6 Cincinatti 5.04
West 11 Missouri 4.54
West 9 Tennessee 3.45
West 3 Connecticut 0.76
West 10 Penn State -1.72
West 8 Michigan -3.17
· Again, Washington over North Carolina is not far-fetched.
· Notre Dame does not stack up against Purdue – again.
· If you want to take a flyer on something, try Texas over Duke. One, Texas hit a lull but they were being talked about as a #1 seed not that long ago so they’re not 4-seed quality. Two, from what I’ve seen, they’re exactly the kind of team that gives Duke trouble – good defensive team, tall, athletic (think Florida State).
Region Seed Team EM
East 1 Ohio State 16.66
East 4 Kentucky 11.68
East 7 Washington 11.12
East 2 North Carolina 11.03
East 3 Syracuse 8.76
East 12 Clemson 6.06
East 5 West Virginia 5.11
East 10 Georgia 5.07
East 11 Marquette 3.68
East 9 Villanova 1.46
Southeast 1 Pittsburgh 14.79
Southeast 2 Florida 11.85
Southeast 4 Wisconsin 9.72
Southeast 7 UCLA 6.01
Southeast 5 Kansas State 4.58
Southeast 6 St. John's 1.94
Southeast 10 Michigan State -3.85
Southwest 1 Kansas 17.26
Southwest 3 Purdue 12.60
Southwest 2 Notre Dame 7.58
Southwest 4 Louisville 6.77
Southwest 9 Illinois 4.67
Southwest 5 Vanderbilt 4.57
Southwest 10 Florida State 4.35
Southwest 11 USC 3.24
Southwest 6 Georgetown -0.53
West 4 Texas 19.79
West 1 Duke 15.72
West 5 Arizona 5.73
West 6 Cincinatti 5.04
West 11 Missouri 4.54
West 9 Tennessee 3.45
West 3 Connecticut 0.76
West 10 Penn State -1.72
West 8 Michigan -3.17
ASM - East Region
ASM – East Region
Here’s the thing. I know everyone says that this is the toughest region and it’s become fashionable to pick someone other than Ohio State. But…OSU has lost two games all year on the road versus two really good teams. Otherwise, they’ve pretty much dominated. I think Kentucky is the only legitimate threat here. North Carolina has ended the season on a hot streak as in a winning streak but they miraculously won three or four of their last games. They’re not dominating. Syracuse just doesn’t measure up either. I’m picking Ohio State in all my pools.
Seed Team ASM
1 Ohio State 20.0
4 Kentucky 16.2
7 Washington 14.9
2 North Carolina 14.3
3 Syracuse 13.3
8 George Mason 11.7
5 West Virginia 10.5
9 Villanova 10.1
11 Marquette 9.9
6 Xavier 9.7
12 Clemson 9.5
12 UAB 8.0
10 Georgia 7.2
15 LIU-Brooklyn 6.2
13 Princeton 4.6
14 Indiana State 2.4
Here’s the thing. I know everyone says that this is the toughest region and it’s become fashionable to pick someone other than Ohio State. But…OSU has lost two games all year on the road versus two really good teams. Otherwise, they’ve pretty much dominated. I think Kentucky is the only legitimate threat here. North Carolina has ended the season on a hot streak as in a winning streak but they miraculously won three or four of their last games. They’re not dominating. Syracuse just doesn’t measure up either. I’m picking Ohio State in all my pools.
Seed Team ASM
1 Ohio State 20.0
4 Kentucky 16.2
7 Washington 14.9
2 North Carolina 14.3
3 Syracuse 13.3
8 George Mason 11.7
5 West Virginia 10.5
9 Villanova 10.1
11 Marquette 9.9
6 Xavier 9.7
12 Clemson 9.5
12 UAB 8.0
10 Georgia 7.2
15 LIU-Brooklyn 6.2
13 Princeton 4.6
14 Indiana State 2.4
ASM Southwest Region
ASM – Southwest Region
Um, Kansas. I do not like Notre Dame here. Purdue can make the Elite Eight, but I don’t think they can beat Kansas. That said, Kansas under Bill Self is extreme feast or famine. Buyer beware.
Seed Team ASM
1 Kansas 20.4
3 Purdue 14.3
4 Louisville 14.2
2 Notre Dame 13.4
5 Vanderbilt 12.2
8 UNLV 11.8
9 Illinois 10.4
6 Georgetown 10.2
7 Texas A&M 10.0
12 Richmond 9.1
10 Florida State 8.9
11 USC 7.2
13 Morehead State 5.9
11 Virginia Commonwealth 5.2
15 Akron 2.7
14 St. Peter's College 1.9
Um, Kansas. I do not like Notre Dame here. Purdue can make the Elite Eight, but I don’t think they can beat Kansas. That said, Kansas under Bill Self is extreme feast or famine. Buyer beware.
Seed Team ASM
1 Kansas 20.4
3 Purdue 14.3
4 Louisville 14.2
2 Notre Dame 13.4
5 Vanderbilt 12.2
8 UNLV 11.8
9 Illinois 10.4
6 Georgetown 10.2
7 Texas A&M 10.0
12 Richmond 9.1
10 Florida State 8.9
11 USC 7.2
13 Morehead State 5.9
11 Virginia Commonwealth 5.2
15 Akron 2.7
14 St. Peter's College 1.9
ASM West Region
I’d say Duke is a good pick here. If you’re going to do two brackets, I say pick Texas in another one. San Diego State has had a nice year, but I don’t think they stack up. Connecticut had a good run in the Big East tournament, but there was a reason they had to win five games in five nights – they were the #9 seed there. Eventually things revert to the mean
Seed Team ASM
1Duke 19.8
4 Texas 16.9
2 San Diego State 14.5
3 Connecticut 11.5
5 Arizona 11.4
11 Missouri 11.3
6 Cincinnati 10.7
7 Temple 9.6
9 Tennessee 8.4
13 Oakland 8.4
8 Michigan 7.0
10 Penn State 6.4
14 Bucknell 5.9
12 Memphis 5.6
15 Northern Colorado 3.1
Seed Team ASM
1Duke 19.8
4 Texas 16.9
2 San Diego State 14.5
3 Connecticut 11.5
5 Arizona 11.4
11 Missouri 11.3
6 Cincinnati 10.7
7 Temple 9.6
9 Tennessee 8.4
13 Oakland 8.4
8 Michigan 7.0
10 Penn State 6.4
14 Bucknell 5.9
12 Memphis 5.6
15 Northern Colorado 3.1
ASM - Southeast Region
Interesting fact that only I would be aware of. The team with the lowest ASM of the region leaders (so the lowest ASM out of Ohio State, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh), has never made the Final Four in the years I’ve been following this metric. Doesn’t mean the other three teams made it, but the fourth best team hasn’t. So, if you don’t think four #1 seeds are going to make the Final Four, you might want to try Florida or BYU if you’re really feeling frisky. That said, this region stinks so Pittsburgh will probably go to the Final Four. Belmont and Utah State’s ASM’s are inflated, but might be worth an upset pick in the first round.
Seed-Team-ASM
1 Pittsburgh - 16.0
3 BYU - 15.7
13 Belmont - 15.1
12 Utah State - 13.3
2 Florida - 13.1
4 Wisconsin - 13.0
11 Gonzaga - 11.3
5 Kansas State - 11.2
8 Butler - 8.6
9 Old Dominion - 8.2
6 St. John's - 7.8
7 UCLA - 7.0
10 Michigan State - 6.8
14 Wofford - 4.9
15 UCSB - 2.0
Seed-Team-ASM
1 Pittsburgh - 16.0
3 BYU - 15.7
13 Belmont - 15.1
12 Utah State - 13.3
2 Florida - 13.1
4 Wisconsin - 13.0
11 Gonzaga - 11.3
5 Kansas State - 11.2
8 Butler - 8.6
9 Old Dominion - 8.2
6 St. John's - 7.8
7 UCLA - 7.0
10 Michigan State - 6.8
14 Wofford - 4.9
15 UCSB - 2.0
Monday, March 14, 2011
Your NCAA bracket metrics are coming
Probably will post tonight with analysis. Maybe tomorrow. If you need this information sooner because your pool gives points for the first four games, you are in a bad pool.
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