South Region ASM

Here's the thing about Florida. People say they can't finish or win the close ones. They're 28-0 in games decided by 10 or more points and 1-6 (or something) in games decided by fewer than ten points. They've also been in the elite eight the last two years and fallen short, including last year when they had a lead in the 2nd half and couldn't close it out. But here's the thing, if you're going to pick a champ other than Indiana and Louisville, you could do much, much worse:

• They're super-efficient.
• They've been in the elite eight the last two years - hello, that's not a bad thing.
• In the NFL and MLB, stats guys talk about the unsustainability of really good or bad records in close games (usually under a touchdown or one-run games). It's likely the same in basketball which means that Florida is due to revert back to the mean.

Which probably means Kansas will beat Georgetown to go to the Final Four.

Region	Seed	Team	ASM
South	3	Florida	21.1
South	1	Kansas	15.9
South	4	Michigan	15.0
South	5	Virginia Commonwealth	14.6
South	12	Akron	12.5
South	7	San Diego State	12.2
South	2	Georgetown	12.0
South	8	North Carolina	11.4
South	11	Minnesota	11.1
South	14	Northwestern State	9.7
South	6	UCLA	9.2
South	13	South Dakota State	8.7
South	10	Oklahoma	8.6
South	9	Villanova	6.8
South	15	Florida Gulf Coast	5.8
South	16	Western Kentucky	2.0