It's true what you say about statistics, and the ASM does, I believe, have to be taken with a grain of salt.
For example, Louisville had a very high ASM last year as well, but because the ASM is developed over an entire year, it doesn't fully penalize a team when they are playing poorly as the Cardinals were at the end of last year. I would have more faith in them this year because they are actually playing well for a change at the end of the year.
Similarly, Cincy had a high ASM last year, but Cincy was a fraud based on their weak schedule (note: I believe Duke will be this year's Cincinnati - high ASM, but built on a weak schedule). While the ASM is supposed to account for schedule differences, I do think it can be inflated.
Anyway, it's an interesting tool that I'm going to use again. We'll see if it works again.
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