Yes, it’s time for the annual Malt Shop Logic post. Not the
annual NCAA post. The annual post. Yes, friends: it has come to this. MSL is
one un-MSL moment away of being relegated to the dustbin of the blogosphere.
But then where would I post this stuff?
Let’s start by grounding ourselves in why you read this.
Here are a few things I said last year (which I’ll repeat in this post even
though it’s all still on the front page:
So, when you’re picking a national champion this year, you
might want to pick one of these five teams:
|
Region
|
Seed
|
Team
|
OQ
|
DQ
|
ASM
|
|
South
|
3
|
Florida
|
14.1
|
7.1
|
21.1
|
|
East
|
1
|
Indiana
|
5.0
|
16.1
|
21.1
|
|
West
|
1
|
Gonzaga
|
9.4
|
11.0
|
20.5
|
|
Midwest
|
1
|
Louisville
|
9.8
|
9.6
|
19.4
|
|
Midwest
|
2
|
Duke
|
5.1
|
12.5
|
17.6
|
Score one for my system. How about this gem:
Did you also know that 22 of the 36 Final Four teams in the
last nine years had a top 10 ASM that season? And that 27 of 36 had a top 15
ASM that season? So, assuming that the top rated ASM in each region won’t all
make the final four, you should expand your search to these 15 teams:
|
Region
|
Seed
|
Team
|
OQ
|
DQ
|
ASM
|
|
South
|
3
|
Florida
|
14.1
|
7.1
|
21.1
|
|
East
|
1
|
Indiana
|
5.0
|
16.1
|
21.1
|
|
West
|
1
|
Gonzaga
|
9.4
|
11.0
|
20.5
|
|
Midwest
|
1
|
Louisville
|
9.8
|
9.6
|
19.4
|
|
Midwest
|
2
|
Duke
|
5.1
|
12.5
|
17.6
|
|
West
|
7
|
Notre Dame
|
4.6
|
12.6
|
17.3
|
|
West
|
8
|
Pittsburgh
|
12.4
|
3.7
|
16.1
|
|
South
|
1
|
Kansas
|
7.5
|
8.4
|
15.9
|
|
West
|
11
|
Belmont
|
6.4
|
9.2
|
15.6
|
|
West
|
2
|
Ohio State
|
8.9
|
6.3
|
15.2
|
|
East
|
4
|
Syracuse
|
7.8
|
7.3
|
15.2
|
|
South
|
4
|
Michigan
|
3.9
|
11.1
|
15.0
|
|
South
|
5
|
Virginia Commonwealth
|
4.5
|
10.1
|
14.6
|
|
Midwest
|
11
|
Saint Mary's
|
4.8
|
9.5
|
14.3
|
|
Midwest
|
7
|
Creighton
|
4.7
|
9.3
|
14.1
|
Score two for my system (i.e., Louisville, Syracuse and
Michigan were all in the top 10 ASM scores for major conference teams).
And then, my favorite:
What I’m suggesting this year is not rigid adherence to the
system. And to look for bargains compared to the wisdom of the crowds as laid
out in this excellent Slate article. For example:
·
Take
the East Region. According to ESPN.com, the crowd has Indiana winning this
region 44 percent of the time and Miami winning it 37 percent of the time. But
Syracuse has the second highest ASM in the region (behind Indiana). Might be
worth a flier on them in one of your brackets because at worst, only 19 percent
of your pool might pick them.
That’s three in my favor. In fact, the Syracuse item won me
one pool and got me to second place in the largest pool I play in.
So now that you remember why you read this, let’s go into
the details about this year.